The Breakdown | Again we dare to wonder if this is Italy’s time – because England’s confidence looks shot

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For N=4N = 4N=4: 4×1/8=1/24 \times 1/8 = 1/24×1/8=1/2. That matches our simulation. But we can only add probabilities when the events are mutually exclusive (no two can happen at the same time). Can two of these events overlap?